{"id":3616,"date":"2025-05-14T09:29:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T06:29:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stage.thedefender.media\/?post_type=insights&p=3616"},"modified":"2025-11-20T21:03:09","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T19:03:09","slug":"marijn-markus-interview","status":"publish","type":"insights","link":"https:\/\/stage.thedefender.media\/en\/insights\/marijn-markus-interview\/","title":{"rendered":"The man fighting Russian disinformation with data, irony, and viral memes. Interview with Marijn Markus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Information warfare has become a critical front in modern defence tech \u2014 and Ukraine is already home to a growing number of promising AI-driven startups in the field, including Osavul, Mantis Analytics, and others. Defender begins its deep dive into this domain with insights from Marijn Markus, a Dutch expert who has been closely following the war in Ukraine and understands the mechanics of information warfare. Bojan Stojkovski sat down with him to discuss Russian propaganda tactics, the lessons Ukraine\u2019s frontline can teach the West, and the evolving role of AI on the battlefield.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A data scientist by trade, a meme lord by the LinkedIn algorithm\u2019s will, this is how Marijn Markus describes himself. If you\u2019re on LinkedIn and closely watched updates on the war in Ukraine, you\u2019ve probably seen Marijn\u2019s posts<\/a>\u2014sharp, data-driven breakdowns of Russian propaganda campaigns, laced with irony and memes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 35-year-old Dutchman has been one of the most ardent supporters of Ukraine and has used his skills as a data scientist, communicator, and online organiser to support grassroots aid efforts, and keep international attention focused on the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Marijn, the Russian aggression on Ukraine is personal, as it affected his close friends, such as Sergei\u2014a gamer from Mariupol he met online, who vanished after the full-scale invasion began. One day they were chatting on Discord about anime and video games, and the next, Sergei stopped replying. That sudden silence stayed with Marijn. It turned abstract geopolitics into a visceral loss. \u201cHe\u2019s part of the reason I care so much,\u201d he says. \u201cBecause I knew him\u2014and then he was gone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A couple of weeks ago, I had the chance to talk with him about his mission while we were on the train from the Polish city of Przemy\u015bl to Kyiv, where we were both headed to attend the Invest in Bravery conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defender Media: When did you first become interested in countering Russian disinformation, and what sparked that shift for you?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

MM:<\/strong> I\u2019m a data scientist by trade, but I started out as a social scientist\u2014sociology, criminology, statistics. It wasn\u2019t sexy back then. Now we call it \u201cAI\u201d and \u201cdata science,\u201d and suddenly, I\u2019m sexy\u2014flips hair<\/em>. I also did a minor in media and communication\u2014aka propaganda science. I studied the Frankfurt School, who analysed Soviet propaganda. The \u201cfirehose of falsehood\u201d tactic, for example\u2014not to convince you of a lie, but to drown the truth in noise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I remember reading that for class, looking at the TV in 2014, and MH17 had just been shot down. And Dutch news said, \u201cThe Ukrainians say the Russians did it. The Russians say the Ukrainians did it.\u201d Also NATO, the Jews, the Illuminati, and so on. And I looked at that book\u2014and it was the same thing. Like studying dinosaurs and seeing one walk past the window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That changed my life. We call it \u201cfake news\u201d now, but the tactic hasn\u2019t changed in 80+ years. It\u2019s still accusing the other of what you\u2019re guilty of. Call them Nazis. Call them gay. We\u2019re all gay Nazis according to Russian propaganda. It wasn\u2019t obsession\u2014it was relevance. The thing I studied because I found it interesting turned out to be incredibly real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Marijn Markus \/ Image Credits: Invest in Bravery<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That was during the big data revolution, when we realised how much information we had access to. That\u2019s how I got into data science. I spent weeks on Twitter, posting nonstop about MH17, verifying footage, analysing Russian comms. People kept saying, \u201cWe\u2019ll never know,\u201d which is the most classic disinfo tactic. Just pump out enough lies until people give up. That\u2019s not about believing the lie\u2014it\u2019s about not believing anything at all. That\u2019s what \u201cpost-truth\u201d really is: the erosion of meaning. Once you stop believing in truth, you stop caring. If you believe you can\u2019t know<\/em>, then you do nothing. That\u2019s what they want\u2014paralysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This tactic goes back hundreds, if not thousands of years. And that\u2019s why I care so deeply\u2014not just about disinformation, but about information. It\u2019s not about being 100% right. That\u2019s impossible. As a statistician, the goal is never to be right\u2014it\u2019s to be less wrong<\/em>. That’s the whole point of science. But the moment you shrug and say, \u201cWe\u2019ll never know,\u201d you abandon all progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People say \u201cbut we need to understand both sides,\u201d and it\u2019s like\u2014no. This is a textbook. The Nazis and Soviets invaded Poland the same way\u2014claiming to protect local populations. Same with Finland. False flags, bombing your own people, blaming the enemy. All of it, 80+ years ago. It keeps happening because we\u2019re terrible at history. And that\u2019s why I write about it\u2014so we remember.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a time when we have the tools to verify almost everything, why do you think so many people still fall for disinformation\u2014or choose not to check the facts at all?<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

It’s all still very new to us. ChatGPT has only been around for a few years. Google has been here for maybe 20 years. Most people are still technologically illiterate, and yet we have all these tools at our disposal to look things up in ways we couldn\u2019t decades ago. The internet has completely changed the way we live, but we\u2019re still immature in how we use it\u2014and it\u2019s going to take decades for us to mature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s part of why we\u2019re failing so hard. When the steam engine arrived, you think there weren\u2019t a lot of accidents? When radio waves came and we didn\u2019t know what radiation was, you think there weren\u2019t accidents? When electricity arrived, how many people stuck their fingers in sockets and got electrocuted?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cTech is never the problem. Legacy is. Legacy thinking. Legacy processes. Legacy data. Legacy humans.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is the next technological revolution\u2014after steam, after radio, after electricity\u2014it\u2019s the internet and open access to information. Twenty years ago, we called it the digital revolution because companies started digitising their processes. Ten years ago, we spoke of the data revolution because people began analysing massive amounts of data. Today, we talk about the AI revolution\u2014because now we can let models do a lot of that analysis for us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Marijn Markus \/ Image Credits: Invest in Bravery<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But the truth is, most companies and organisations never did their homework. They\u2019re still stuck in the digital revolution\u2014they never properly digitised their processes, so they don\u2019t have the data. That means they missed the data revolution too. And now, with the AI revolution, everyone\u2019s screaming \u201cWe want to build our own GPT model on our own data!\u201d But do you have your own data? \u201cYeah, but it\u2019s shit.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So because people didn\u2019t do the work decades ago, they\u2019re now stuck. We should not confuse cause and effect. A lot of the issues we see with tech today come from that failure to adapt\u2014not because the tech itself is bad. I reject that. I\u2019m a nerd, a techie. But tech is never the problem. Legacy is. Legacy thinking. Legacy processes. Legacy data. Legacy humans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will it take for Western militaries to catch up with Ukraine\u2014not just in tech, but in mindset?<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I speak to the Dutch military\u2014we\u2019re five to ten years behind what\u2019s happening in Ukraine. And yeah, sure, we have a five-year innovation plan, but we don\u2019t have five years. Right now we\u2019re trying to rebuild our militaries, because all NATO countries need to rebuild theirs by buying back outdated stuff. Oh, we sold off our hand-carried artillery, whatever, blah blah, and now we\u2019re going to rebuild it? Sorry, but that artillery is already outdated, and you’re going to spend millions of our tax euros on rebuilding something that\u2019s already obsolete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When I speak to the Ukrainian military, they get<\/em> tech. Two-thirds of that force isn\u2019t professional soldiers\u2014it\u2019s developers, engineers, and software guys who went into the military to defend their damn country. When I speak to the Dutch military? Half of them have never touched a computer with a stick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Read more: <\/strong>Turning Ukraine\u2019s war-born innovations into global ventures: interview with founders of Invest in Bravery<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a huge tech gap. In most companies, one-third of the staff work in IT. One-third of all job openings are in IT. My mom still says I \u201cdo something with computers\u201d like it’s niche, but one in three people here do something with IT. And yet in the military? We don\u2019t have a third who understand tech. Not even close. That\u2019s going to cost us. We\u2019re preparing for tomorrow\u2019s war with people who only know the wars of the past\u2014Cold War doctrine, asymmetric warfare. We no longer know what it\u2019s like to fight another full-on military. We only know how to bomb some militants in Afghanistan. Pardon my French, but that\u2019s the benchmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“The front line is a 15-kilometer-wide death zone where anything visible gets hit by an FPV drone. We, westerners, are not ready for that war.”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Just like we once had to shift to<\/em> asymmetric warfare, now we need to shift back<\/em>. Ukraine is the only<\/em> country in Europe today with real, live experience in full-scale military-on-military warfare. And yet we\u2019re still out here talking about buying hand-carried artillery with some XYZ-kilometer range. It\u2019s irrelevant. The front line is a 15-kilometer-wide death zone where anything<\/em> visible gets hit by an FPV drone. We are not ready for that war. Not with our outdated tactics. Not with our outdated standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The summer 2023 Ukrainian offensive didn\u2019t fail because Ukrainians lacked the will\u2014it failed because we told them to use NATO tactics without giving them NATO air superiority. But NATO doctrine depends<\/em> on air superiority. So we told them: \u201cDo the thing\u2014without the thing.\u201d Charge with your Leopards? No. That doesn\u2019t work. And even now, two years later\u2014it still<\/em> doesn\u2019t work. All the tanks? Gone. All the artillery? Gone. And most of the troops? Trained on that outdated stuff. It\u2019s irrelevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Marijn Markus \/ Image Credits: Invest in Bravery<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And here\u2019s the crazy part: not only do all NATO militaries need to rebuild their weapons, munitions, and armor, they\u2019re also working with outdated gear and<\/em> outdated people. Outdated gear you can replace\u2014some people will even make a lot of money off that. But outdated people? That\u2019s a whole different ballgame. You need experienced people to train the next wave. And guess what? There\u2019s only one<\/em> country we can really learn from: Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denmark gets it\u2014they\u2019re sending troops to Ukraine to learn about drones. Everyone<\/em> should be doing that. Who else are we going to learn from? Russia? China? China has a strong proxy in Russia. They\u2019ll exploit all that drone experience. But we could match it\u2014or even surpass it\u2014on our side. So instead of questioning whether Ukraine should join NATO, we should be begging<\/em> them to join. Ukraine is a military asset in ways no other country is right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But instead, I find myself stuck in conversations where people say, \u201cWe need to build a drone battalion.\u201d No. You need drones in every battalion. One of the tank riders should be flying a drone, looking from above. Artillery should be coordinated by drones. Medivacs should be done by drones. Every battalion needs drones. If you say, \u201cLet\u2019s start with a drone battalion,\u201d then you just don\u2019t understand how serious the situation is. Or your politicians aren\u2019t giving you the means to get serious\u2014which is another issue entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“Instead of questioning whether Ukraine should join NATO, we should be begging them to join. Ukraine is a military asset in ways no other country is right now.”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

And yeah, I\u2019ve worked with major Western organisations who say they don\u2019t want to develop killer drones. They don\u2019t want their hardware or software used to dehumanise or kill. They call it \u201ckiller AI.\u201d I work a lot with AI companies\u2014they don\u2019t want their visual recognition tech to be used like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Marijn Markus \/ Image Credits: Invest in Bravery<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But look\u2014twelve years ago, Andrew Ng at Google trained a model to recognise cats and dogs. Today, that same tech is in every self-driving car and in every autonomous military drone. We taught a computer to see in 2012. Now, in 2024, it\u2019s a weapon. That\u2019s how fast things go when the pressure is real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But instead of adapting, we say \u201cwe need to regulate.\u201d Sure. But the same companies that say they won\u2019t touch this tech today? The moment the first French soldier dies, they\u2019ll drop that policy. By then, it\u2019ll be too late. That<\/em> is the real issue. We\u2019re clipping our own wings now. And when the real shit hits the fan\u2014when the Baltics get invaded\u2014it\u2019s going to be too late. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is short-term moral comfort at the cost of long-term existential risk. And we\u2019ve been under-investing in our defence for far too long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given Ukraine\u2019s success against Russia\u2019s Black Sea Fleet without having a navy of its own, what does this reveal about the future of naval warfare\u2014and why is it the most unpredictable and dangerous frontier today?<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In Ukraine, for the first time, we’ve seen modern land warfare between two armies in ways we haven\u2019t before. It\u2019s basically: forget your tanks, forget your armor\u2014it’s a 15-kilometer kill zone made of FPV drones. We’ve also seen modern aerial warfare, which is basically: nothing flies because it gets shot down. There is no aerial dominance\u2014only mutual denial. But the one thing we haven\u2019t seen is modern naval warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only country with actual experience in modern naval warfare is Russia\u2014and we just saw them lose a third of their Black Sea Fleet, blown up by tiny boat drones that Ukraine assembled. Now, the rest of their ships are hiding in port, too afraid to venture into the Black Sea. Ukraine, meanwhile, has no navy of its own, but it still kicked the Russian Navy\u2019s ass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big unknown is what Navy-on-Navy warfare looks like in modern times\u2014because Ukraine doesn\u2019t have any cruise ships or equivalent large vessels. That\u2019s what makes future naval warfare the scariest right now: we have the least data on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bojan Stojkovski & Marijn Markus \/ Image Credits: Bojan Stojkovski<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What we have<\/em> seen is that combined arms warfare has become a huge differentiator\u2014NATO\u2019s doctrine of integrating land, air, and sea. Ukraine is doing this already. We see naval drones going all the way to Crimea and launching aerial FPV drones from there to strike deep behind enemy lines. The boat, which has satellite connection, functions as a transmitter for the remote-controlled drones. Anyone could just sail into a port and launch FPV drones that start blowing up high-value targets. This isn\u2019t sci-fi\u2014it\u2019s already happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“The next big leap is AI-controlled naval drones\u2014underwater ones.”<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Now imagine doing this with aerial drones as delivery systems. You could have winged drones fly into a city and drop FPV drones to take out multiple targets. They could do that to The Hague. And we\u2019re not ready. Sure, if we see them coming, we could blow them up\u2014with expensive missiles. But you can’t scale that. You can\u2019t shoot down $1,000 drones with $1 million missiles indefinitely. In a real war, especially against China, you’ll lose. The cost to defend exceeds the cost to attack. They’ll just keep coming. You can\u2019t jam it either, unless you jam your entire airspace\u2014which is also unworkable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we shouldn\u2019t just be asking what naval warfare will look like\u2014we should be looking at how land and aerial warfare are merging. And the next frontier is underwater. Why haven\u2019t we seen underwater drones yet? Because water blocks radio waves. You need satellite uplink, which works fine for crewed submarines that surface to communicate, but not for autonomous drones. Unless they\u2019re fully AI-controlled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we\u2019ve already seen AI-controlled aerial drones and some land drones. The next big leap is AI-controlled naval drones\u2014underwater ones. Why stay vulnerable on the surface if you can go underwater and become a torpedo-like AI drone?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bojan Stojkovski<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bojan Stojkovski is a freelance journalist. Based in Skopje, North Macedonia, he reports on technology, science, and environmental issues, as well as post-war societies in the Western Balkan countries. His work has been featured in Foreign Policy, WSJ, ZDNET, New Eastern Europe, and Interesting Engineering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n